Increase R&D Spending on Quantum Technology to Promote Artificial Intelligence Innovation      

Spring 2022

By Ren Bin Lee Dixon, MPP

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a technology that aims to simulate human cognition and is presently able to help humans make complex decisions and identify intricate patterns normally indiscernible to human eyes. Thus, AI has become ubiquitous in every level of society, from recommending our lifestyle choices to sentencing criminal offenders, and even mapping out complex protein structures. With such a far-reaching influence, AI is set to have a transformative impact in all areas of society as it progresses.

The National AI Initiative Act of 2020 (NAIIA) became law on January 1st, 2021 establishing a coordinated framework for AI research and development to accelerate and maintain US leadership in the future of this technology (National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, 2021). The Act signaled the US government’s commitment to focus on advancing AI, which is encouraging since AI innovation in the US has been sluggish. In contrast, China has consistently exhibited a single-minded focus over the years on realizing their ambitious goal of becoming the world leader in AI by 2035 (Castro & McLaughlin, 2021; Kim, 2021). 

A future dominated by Chinese AI infrastructure and systems is a matter of concern for democratic countries. China’s state-driven approach to innovation has been advantageous in aggressively driving their AI growth. However, their authoritarian values are also strongly reflected and deeply embedded in their system and infrastructure (Hoover Institution, 2020). For instance, China has developed a robust surveillance infrastructure and network, which they have successfully exported through Asia, Middle East, and Latin America (Polyakova & Meserole, 2019). Strategically targeting developing countries without a strong AI and technology governance will allow China to promote and expand their digital authoritarian model (Kliman & Grace, 2018). In digital authoritarianism, AI has been used as a highly effective surveillance and censorship tool for authoritarian governments to control their people and suppress dissenting voices (Dragu & Lupu, 2021). For instance, a recent report by the National Cyber Security Centre in Lithuania claimed that Chinese mobile phone Xiaomi that was being sold in the country was discovered to have built-in censorship capabilities that could detect terms that are blacklisted in China, such as “Free Tibet,” “Democratic Movement,” and “Long Live Taiwan’s Independence” (National Cyber Security Centre, 2021).

In order to achieve its goal of maintaining leadership in AI technology, the US should invest in quantum technology to leapfrog in AI innovation (Dilmegani, 2020). Quantum technology provides ‘superposition’ and ‘entanglement’ qualities, which are based on quantum mechanics, that can enable researchers to study endless scenarios and outcomes normally prohibited by the linear systems of classical computers (Katwala, 2020). This will greatly speed up machine learning models, complete years of analysis in a short period of time, and address other uncertainties that current AI models are challenged with (Chivot & Omaar, 2020). A few anticipated uses of quantum AI include:

• Accelerate revolutionary drug and pharmaceutical discovery through high-speed quantum simulation, reducing cost and time-to-market (Cao et al., 2018).

• Enhance climate forecast accuracy to identify weather emergencies, as well as develop more efficient chemical catalysts that can be used in carbon reduction and capture (Bobier et al., 2020).

• Map out and prevent operational challenges in complex manufacturing, such as in microchip production, to reduce costly failures (Bova et al., 2021).

In 2020, the White House announced a $1 billion investment in AI and quantum computing. In reality, this amount pales in comparison to the recommended $25 billion by national security think tank Center for a New American Security (Wiggers, 2020). Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence estimated spending $120 billion by 2025 as essential to uphold US global leadership in AI. These recommendations are warranted as China has spent to date $10 billion in quantum computing while Chinese tech giant Tencent announced in 2020 their plans to invest $70 billion over the next five years. The result of their investments can be observed in both large- and small-scale technological developments, including their most recent breakthrough in December 2020 when China achieved the world’s second ‘quantum supremacy’ with their quantum computer named Jiuzhang. The achievement by Jiuzhang was noteworthy as it was 10 billion times faster than Google’s Sycamore, which was the first to break quantum supremacy; and Jiuzhang was able to operate at room temperature whereas Sycamore had to be kept at -273 degree Celsius (Conover, 2020; Deng & Huang, 2020; Garisto, 2021).

Recommendations

While Google, Microsoft, and IBM are some of the existing big players investing in quantum technology, quantum technology is in fact a general-purpose technology (GPT) (Mazzucato, 2015) that is a nascent deep tech that requires substantial government funding to accelerate its innovation. Investment in deep tech is usually more restrained in the private sector as it requires substantial R&D and may not directly or immediately serve end users. The shortage of talents within this field will also benefit from a government driven initiative (Chivot & Omaar, 2020). A number of actions should be taken when reforming the US government’s current development of quantum technology:

• Prioritize immediate applications and near-term technology transfer

According to Hartmut Neven, director of the Quantum Artificial Intelligence Lab, quantum technology is expected to grow at a doubly exponential rate faster than classical computers by leveraging on quantum principles (Hartnett, 2019). Therefore, it is imperative to invest in immediate applications and prioritize technology transfer of quantum technologies to kickstart the virtuous cycle growth that computational power historically experiences (Omaar, 2021). An equally significant aspect of this approach is that it opens up the R&D challenge to a larger and broader set of actors who are not necessarily within the industry-academia-government network. Immediate applications and near-term technology transfer can foster a “lead-and-learn” approach that has been proven to be the ideal method for solving grand challenges such as this (Kattel & Mazzucato, 2018). With a technology that is expected to advance doubly exponentially, the classical “support-and-measure” approach will be swiftly outpaced resulting in a policy lag for the technology.

• Build a national quantum research cloud

To further facilitate the immediate application of quantum technology and ensure that a larger and broader set of actors are engaged in its development, a national quantum research cloud should be established to provide researchers, public and private users access to experiment in high-end quantum computing platform in a secure electronic cloud environment (Omaar, 2021). Currently, quantum computers are still highly specialized and costly to develop, limiting accessibility and resulting in a bottleneck for growth.

• Establish a global governance framework through multilateral collaboration

Quantum technology is a deep tech that involves substantial scientific and engineering research, which subsequently requires significant investment financially and in expertise. Therefore, the US should identify countries with common priorities and research objectives, to leverage on a shared network that will not only boost progress but also establish a powerful collective leadership. Additionally, an international collaboration can help facilitate the setup of a global governance framework similar to those for AI, to ensure responsible and ethical development of quantum technology (Chivot & Omaar, 2020).

To be clear, the intention of this proposal is to urge the US to expand the development of quantum technology for the advancement of AI. The result of which will bring transformative benefits across nearly all sectors, as well as to counter the rising risk of digital authoritarianism from spreading globally. Nevertheless, these recommendations should not be interpreted as a push to compete with China or any other countries in the development of these technologies. A technological race in this context would be inconducive for compliance with safety precautions, which are paramount for ensuring safety, security, and fairness (Armstrong et al., 2016; Cave & ÓhÉigeartaigh, 2018). It cannot be overstated enough the profound impact general-purpose technologies such as quantum technology and AI can have on humanity (Allen & West, 2018). Therefore, its development should be carried out with the utmost caution and consideration to ensure a favorable outcome for humanity.

References

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Armstrong, S., Bostrom, N., & Shulman, C. (2016). Racing to the precipice: A model of artificial intelligence development. AI & SOCIETY, 31(2), 201–206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-015-0590-y

Bobier, J.-F., Gerbert, P., Burchardt, J., & Gourevitch, A. (2020, August 19). A Quantum Advantage in Fighting Climate Change. BCG Global. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/quantum-advantage-fighting-climate-change

Bova, F., Goldfarb, A., & Melko, R. (2021, July 16). Quantum Computing Is Coming. What Can It Do? Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2021/07/quantum-computing-is-coming-what-can-it-do

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Castro, D., & McLaughlin, M. (2021). Who Is Winning the AI Race: China, The EU, or the United States? —2021 Update. 49.

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Conover, E. (2020, December 3). The new light-based quantum computer Jiuzhang has achieved quantum supremacy. Science News. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/new-light-based-quantum-computer-jiuzhang-supremacy

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