Book Review: Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy by Kishore Mahbubani

“But if Americans want to be truly exceptional, they might start by viewing the whole idea of ‘American exceptionalism’ with a much more skeptical eye.” Stephen M. Walt (2011) 

In Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy (2020), Kishore Mahbubani examines the growing power struggle between China and the United States (U.S.), questioning whether China has already managed to “win” by rising to challenge America’s global influence. This central question is less a statement and more a call to consider the changing geopolitical landscape, as Mahbubani explores how the U.S. is losing its dominance in the face of China's ascent.

Mahbubani outlines the historical and political dynamics that have shaped U.S.-China relations, arguing that America’s post-Cold War supremacy is being challenged by China’s rapid rise. The West assumed that as China developed economically, it would adopt Western-style democracy and capitalism, but China has instead carved out its own model of development—combining state-driven capitalism with authoritarian governance. Mahbubani sees this approach as a core reason China has emerged as a serious contender to U.S. primacy.

Framing the competition as a systemic clash, Mahbubani describes the U.S. as embodying a liberal democratic order, while China represents a pragmatic authoritarianism that has lifted millions out of poverty. He warns that the U.S., by clinging to a Cold War mindset and failing to adapt to China’s model, risks heightening tensions. His critique of American foreign policy points out that U.S. policies are often reactive and ideologically driven—prioritizing democracy and human rights while overlooking China’s pragmatism. China, by contrast, forges closer ties in Africa and Latin America without demanding governance reforms, which has helped it secure influence more effectively than the U.S.

Mahbubani argues that American policymakers are stuck viewing China through a Cold War lens, overly focused on military competition while neglecting the economic and technological arenas where China is gaining ground. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and technological advances in 5G, China is securing global influence without a heavy military footprint, making it a more challenging opponent than the U.S. seems to recognize.

Though Mahbubani’s perspectives are often seen as sympathetic to China, he does not shy away from acknowledging its internal issues, such as economic inequality, corruption, and restrictions on political freedoms. However, he doubts these challenges will impede China’s global ambitions, believing that China’s leadership has proven capable of managing domestic challenges and improving the quality of life for many of its citizens. 

Mahbubani also levels criticism at American elites, especially in foreign policy. He contends that U.S. leaders have mismanaged their global standing, allowing self-serving policies to alienate allies, undermine multilateral institutions, and weaken the domestic economy. He argues that U.S. policymakers have overestimated the universality of American values, expecting China and other nations to embrace democracy and capitalism as they develop. China’s rise challenges the assumption that economic prosperity will naturally lead to political liberalization.

For Mahbubani, the U.S. should shift from trying to “win” over China to a pragmatic approach that accepts China as a peer. He argues for a strategy of accommodation, suggesting areas of potential cooperation, such as climate change and pandemic management, where both countries share interests. Rather than engaging in a zero-sum competition, he sees a future where the two superpowers could coexist with a balance of influence.

Has China Won? provides a provocative analysis of the U.S.-China rivalry and challenges Western readers to rethink assumptions about global power structures and the role of liberal democracy. Mahbubani’s insights, coming from an observer outside either power, bring a unique perspective that tempers ideological biases. Ultimately, Mahbubani reframes the question of whether the U.S. is prepared to adapt to a world in which it is no longer the sole superpower. This nuanced approach makes the book a valuable read for anyone seeking to understand the future of international relations.